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The beef supply chain in the United States typically starts on a ranch similar Marty Malone's, in Paradise Valley, with the birth of calves. After a summer of grazing, a moo-cow reaches almost 500 to 700 pounds. Then the cow is sold to a feedlot in the Midwest or Peachy Plains, where it eats feed like corn and barley to fatten up. At about one,200 pounds and 18 months of age, it'due south slaughtered at a nearby packing plant. And then it's shipped to a wholesaler, who sells the meat to a restaurant or grocery store, where an terminate client purchases information technology.

Ane calendar month into nationwide stay-at-home orders related to COVID-nineteen, that supply chain has been disrupted in the middle, with many of the nation's largest packing plants shutting down due to COVID-19 outbreaks at their facilities. That means fewer cattle are beingness slaughtered, which means fewer are being taken off feedlots, which ways fewer are beingness purchased from ranchers like Malone. On Friday, April 24, the U.Southward. Department of Agriculture reported 23% fewer cattle were put on feed in March 2020 than in March 2019.

Regardless, Malone and other ranchers still have the same corporeality of cattle. And in what was anticipated to be a record year for beefiness producers, prices are now down nigh 30% since the commencement of the year.

"Information technology depresses the market, and at that place's a excess all the fashion back to the cow-calf guy," Malone said.

Though cow-dogie production is a twelvemonth-round business concern, most Montana ranchers calve their herds in the bound and sell in the autumn. They volition before long confront a tough choice regarding their 2.5 million cattle: skip this yr's paycheck and keep the cattle on their land and purchase more feed for winter, or sell at about $111 less per head than pre-pandemic prices.

"In that location is so much uncertainty in where the market lies," said Jay Bodner, executive vice president of the Montana Stockgrowers Association. "That is the No. ane affair on our heed right now: how tin we endeavor to fix what'southward going on?"

Montana ranchers aren't alone. Nationwide, cow-calf producers are expected to lose $8 billion in 2020 and across, co-ordinate to a study from Oklahoma State University. In other parts of the country, with packing plants slowing down, hogs and chickens are existence euthanized, having become essentially worthless. Only cattle are worth more and take longer to abound to market weight, said David Anderson, a professor of agricultural economics at Texas A&M. Earlier this month, Congress passed a relief bill that includes $19 billion for the agriculture manufacture, only which producers get what share is still being determined, Anderson said.

In Montana, ranchers will likely breed less this coming autumn.

"We are likely going to see reductions in herd sizes," said Anton Bekkerman, an associate professor of agricultural economics at Montana State University. "Information technology stinks a lot, because those decisions tin can't exist made correct at present because cows are already calving."

The majority of America'south meat is slaughtered at a pocket-sized number of plants, so shutdowns or slowdowns accept a large bear on on the amount of meat produced nationwide. With COVID-19 outbreaks at different plants, overall meat production is down about 20%. Every bit a consequence, Tyson Foods, JBS and Smithfield, the nation'south largest meat producers, have projected that grocery stores volition see meat shortages in equally trivial as ii weeks due to the reduced amount of meat coming out of packing plants. With production downwardly, wholesale beefiness prices reached record highs final week. That price increase will likely be passed on to consumers, Anderson said.

There are no large meat processing plants in Montana. When Montana cattle reach about 500 pounds, they're sold to feedlots closer to slaughterhouses in states including Iowa, Nebraska and Colorado, considering it's cheaper to haul a 500-pound calf hundreds of miles than a 1,200 pound cow, Bodner said.

4 major meat processing companies — Tyson, Cargill, JBS and National Meat — slaughter about fourscore% of U.S. cattle. Fifty-fifty though these companies are facing outbreaks at their plants, they even so stand to make record profits because they are paying about xxx% less for alive cattle and receiving record prices for processed beef, Anderson said.

Earlier this calendar month, the Montana Stockgrowers Association joined with organizations in 21 other states to ask the U.S. Department of Justice to investigate whether those companies are manipulating prices. The USDA had already begun investigating the accusation afterwards beefiness prices surged during the pandemic.

After Tyson said it was considering closing 80% of its meat processing facilities, President Donald Trump signed an executive order Tuesday, April 28, to proceed the plants open up under the Defence force Product Human activity, a law used to hogtie industries critical to national well-being to continue operations regardless of lost profits. The law also prevents the companies from price gouging.

This story was updated Apr 29 to include breaking news. The final paragraph was added to the story.

Johnathan Hettinger is a journalist based in Livingston. Originally from Fundamental Illinois and a graduate of the University of Illinois, he has worked at the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting, the Livingston Enterprise and the (Champaign-Urbana) News-Gazette. Contact Johnathan at jhett93@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter.